Legal immigration declines 2.7 times more than illegal immigration under Trump

According to an analysis by the Cato Institute, legal entries fell by approximately 145,000 compared with a decline of 53,128 in illegal entries.

Illegal entries, however, are overstated, as they include all Border Patrol arrests, including individuals who are immediately expelled from the country.

Border Patrol arrests at the southwest border fell by 81 percent from December 2024 to August 2026. Recorded border crossings by “gotaways” who evade Border Patrol significantly declined during Trump’s second term, falling 80 percent. The decrease began before Trump took office, Cato noted, as Border Patrol releases fell 96 percent from their peak before the transition of power.

The administration has pointed to Trump’s executive order directing officials to turn away migrants entering the US unlawfully, including those seeking asylum. However, Cato has also cited general fear among migrants of the Trump administration as well as worsening opportunities for low-skilled labor.

Legal immigration has also been affected by a series of Trump administration restrictions on visa and refugee admissions. The number of asylum seekers entering legally fell from nearly 40,000 in December 2024 to just 26 in February 2026.

The State Department stopped publishing immigrant visa issuance figures after September 2025. Since then, the administration imposed several restrictions, including a ban on immigrant visas for nationals of 40 countries that took effect in January. The State Department also suspended the Diversity Visa Lottery in December 2025 and announced a suspension of immigrant visa issuances for nationals of 75 countries in January 2026.

Visas for foreign fiancés and spouses of US citizens also declined. K visa issues fell 61 percent between February 2024 and February 2026, though Cato noted some applicants may have shifted to alternative visa categories.

Student visas have similarly declined. Issuances in February 2026 were 42 percent lower than in February 2024. H-1B visas for foreign workers also faced restrictions. In September 2025, Trump signed an executive order requiring a $100,000 fee for certain petitions involving newly hired H-1B workers outside the United States. The Department of Homeland Security subsequently reported that filings were reduced by 91 percent.

Refugee admissions have dropped sharply. The monthly number of refugees admitted to the US fell from 12,518 in December 2024 to 1,341 in March 2026. The administration set the fiscal year 2026 refugee admissions cap to 7,500, substantially less than previous levels.

“When we put together the full picture of legal and illegal immigration, we see that President Trump has indeed cut legal entries far more than illegal entries in absolute terms,” Cato reported. “The available information suggests that about 2.7 times as many legal entries are being stopped as illegal entries: 144,569 versus 53,128. Among the cuts to immigration, three-quarters (73 percent) were from legal entries, not illegal entries.”