Michelle Obama surges, now ahead of Nikki Haley in 2024 presidential betting averages as Biden mental decline worries grow

Trump leads with a 43.2 percent chance of winning the election, according to a RealClearPolitics average of betting websites. Biden sits in second place, with a 29.3 percent chance.

Michelle Obama has launched into third place over the last month, sitting at 8.8 percent as of February 9, more than double the chance of Nikki Haley being president, who received a 4.2 percent chance.

In fourth is California Governor Gavin Newsom, with a 5.7 percent chance. Vice President Kamala Harris has a 3.5 percent chance, Robbert F Kennedy Jr has a 3 percent chance, and Virginia’s Glenn Youngkin and West Virginia’s Joe Manchin each have a 1 percent chance.

Haley’s chances dropped in January after the New Hampshire primary election, in which Trump won.

Biden’s odds dropped by around 3 percent between Thursday and Friday, coming after special counsel Robert Hur released his report on the classified documents found in Biden’s possession in which no charges were recommended.

"We have also considered that, at trial, Mr. Biden would likely present himself to a jury, as he did during our interview of him, as a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory," the report from Hur stated. "Based on our direct interactions with and observations of him, he is someone for whom many jurors will want to identify reasonable doubt. It would be difficult to convince a jury that they should convict him — by then a former president well into his eighties — of a serious felony that requires a mental state of willfulness."

Biden’s chances at a second term have been slowly decreasing since his peak in April, with Trump overtaking the incumbent in September.