New York and California projected to lose combined 6 congressional seats after 2030 census

Estimates from the Redistrict Network show the heavily Democratic states could lose nearly 10 percent of their congressional representation. New York is projected to lose two seats, while California could lose four. The changes would also affect the Electoral College, since each state’s number of electoral votes is based on its congressional representation.

By contrast, Republican-led states Texas and Florida are projected to see substantial gains, with each expected to pick up four congressional seats.

Analysts have attributed the projected shifts to several factors, primarily economic pressures that have driven residents out of high-cost states. High taxes, rising rent, and an increased cost of living have been cited as key reasons residents are leaving New York and California.

During the COVID-19 pandemic and in the years since, both states have experienced large population outflows, with many residents relocating to states such as Texas and Florida. US Census Bureau data shows New York and California have each lost about 200,000 residents as of 2025. New York reportedly gained only about 1,000 residents between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025. During the same period, Texas gained roughly 400,000 residents and Florida added about 200,000.

“Americans continue to vote with their feet, fleeing blue states and moving to red states,” GOP spokesman David Laska told the New York Post. “Who could blame them? One-party Democrat rule has made New York the most taxed, least affordable, least free state in America.”

New York has lost congressional seats in every decade since 1950. The state had as many as 45 seats in the 1940s and currently holds 26, a number that could decline further and leave it politically weaker than it has been in decades.