Trump, Kamala in dead heat nationally only 11 days before election: NYT/Siena poll

The Times said that results are "not encouraging for Ms. Harris," and that Democrats often have an edge in the popular vote over Republicans even if the Democrat candidate goes on to lose the Electoral College. This is due to the major cities, population centers in the United States, being primarily Democrat leaning.

The poll found that five percent of those who voted for Biden in the 2020 election would cast their ballot for Trump this time around, while just two percent who voted for Trump in 2020 said they would vote for Harris. Of those who did not vote in 2020, 47 percent said they would vote for Trump while 43 percent said they would vote for Harris.

While the majority of those who identified as black or Hispanic said they would vote for Harris, 12 percent of black likely voters and 42 percent of Hispanic likely voters said they would cast their ballot for Trump.

Overall, 28 percent said that the US is heading in the right direction, while 61 percent said that the country is on the wrong track, a measure that "historically has been a danger sign for the party in power."

27 percent of likely voters said that the economy was the most important decision in deciding their 2024 vote, followed by abortion and immigration which were tied at 15 percent. Voters said that Trump was more likely to do a better job on the issue they think is most important at 49 percent, compared to Harris’ 46 percent.

The gap between the two candidates has closed since the last Times poll in early October, in which Harris received 49 percent support to Trump’s 46 percent.

With the latest poll from the New York Times, RealClearPolling’s average of polls has Trump and Harris tied. On the same day in 2020, Biden was up by eight points, and in 2016 at this time, Clinton was up by 5.1 points.