US sees negative net migration for first time in 50 years during 2025

In a report released Tuesday by the Brookings Institution, the shift was driven by a combination of stepped-up immigration enforcement, removals of illegal immigrants, voluntary departures, but most significantly a sharp decline in new entries into the country over the past year.

"We estimate net flows of -295,000 to -10,000 for the year," the study said. "Though a high degree of policy uncertainty remains, continued negative net migration for 2026 is also likely."

The Trump administration has moved aggressively to reduce both illegal and legal immigration since returning to office. It has suspended or scaled back a range of humanitarian programs, including refugee admissions, with limited exceptions.

Brookings estimated that between 310,000 and 315,000 removals occurred in the United States in 2025. That figure is substantially lower than the number the Trump administration has publicly claimed, and only slightly higher than the roughly 285,000 removals recorded in 2024.

The report noted that the nature of removals has shifted compared with prior years. In fiscal year 2024, only 18 percent of Immigration and Customs Enforcement removals were initiated by ICE rather than U.S. Customs and Border Protection, meaning most deportations involved recent border crossers. Comparable statistics have not yet been released for 2025.

“At 310,000 to 315,000, the 2025 removals are not much higher than the 2024 removals of around 285,000,” the report said. “The nature of these removals has changed, however.”

Brookings added that while ICE has drawn most of the national attention, border statistics and other evidence indicate that most removals in 2025 involved individuals already living in the country’s interior.

The administration is expected to continue pressing for tougher border enforcement. Funding for immigration enforcement agencies was increased through the Big Beautiful Bill passed last year, providing additional resources for border security and interior enforcement efforts as the White House seeks to sustain lower migration levels in 2026.