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As of September 20, the most recent CTV News Nanos poll puts Conservatives ahead of the Liberals by 3 percent, suggesting likeliness of a Conservative minority government if current trends hold.
Currently, the Conservative Party of Canada sits at 37.4 percent, while the Liberal Party of Canada sits at 34.2 percent. The NDP is currently in third with 9.3 percent support, while the Green Party has percent support.
Finally, support for the Bloc Quebecois and the Peoples Party of Canada have begun to decline, dropping to 3.5 percent and 2.4 percent respectively.
Liberal support has so far been unaffected by this weeks scandal wherein it was revealed that Justin Trudeau has a history with wearing blackface makeup.
“If you’re asking whether we’ve seen a drop in Liberal support, the response would be no,” said pollster Nik Nanos on the Trend Line podcast.
With that said, daily tracking from Nanos shows a downward trajectory for the both Liberals and Conservatives, with the most pronounced decline in support coming on the Liberal side. If trends continue, this may result in a greater decrease in Liberal support, but it will not be certain until the next polling update.
Based on Nanos’ daily tracker, today, Conservatives have dropped to 36.8 percent support, while Liberals have dropped to 31.9 percent. Meanwhile, the NDP has risen, again, to 13.2 percent, suggesting that Liberal support is beginning to shift from Trudeau to Singh.