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During the coronavirus update today, Dr. Theresa Tam gave Canada’s latest trajectories. She said that Canada has had the benefit of learning from other countries as it is in the earlier stages of the outbreak than many others worldwide.
The current model predicts that Canada will see between 22,580 and 31,850 coronavirus cases by April 16.
“Based on the case fatality rate this could mean we reach between 500-700 total deaths in Canada by next week.” Tam said.
Tam noted that if each Canadian transmits the virus to less than one person on average, the virus will die out. This is the scenario that Canada is working towards.
“Canada's total case count has been increasing more slowly than most countries. We can see the number of cases are doubling every three to five days—which is comparatively a positive trajectory. Part of this is due the the learning we have taken from he experience of others and the approaches they have taken. This has allowed Canada to act earlier to control the epidemic,” said Tam.
She added that the growth rate of the number of cases in Canada is beginning to slow down.
Tam noted that even when we reach the other side of the curve Canadian’s have to be careful to continue acting with cautionary measures or the epidemic could “reignite.”
“We anticipate that some public health measures will need to remain in place to prevent the growth of future smaller waves,” she said adding, “It is too early to know how close we are to the peak from a national perspective.”
“While some of the numbers released today may seem stark. Canada's modelling demonstrates that the country still has an opportunity to control the epidemic and save lives. We cannot prevent every death but we must prevent all the deaths we can.”
“We all play a role in what the future will hold for Canada's COVID-19 trajectory. We must continue to control the epidemic using tried and true public health measures—including asking every Canadian to stay at home whenever possible, to maintain physical distancing, meticulous hand washing and cover our coughs.”