A new CBS News/YouGov poll has found that former President Donald Trump holds a three-point lead over President Joe Biden across battleground states collectively and a two-point lead nationally.
According to the poll, which surveyed likely voters between June 28 and July 2, Trump currently leads Biden 51 percent to 48 percent in key battleground states. Nationally, Trump is at 50 percent while Biden is at 48 percent. The results came immediately after the presidential debate, which resulted in significant disappointment among Democrats regarding Biden’s performance.
The poll found that there has also been an increase in support for Trump in battleground states over the past month, rising from 49 percent to 51 percent, while Biden's support dropped from 50 percent to 48 percent. The poll defines battleground states to include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
One of the biggest indicators in this poll is that Republican voters are far more likely to vote in this election than Democrats. 90 percent of Republicans said they will “definitely” vote compared to 81 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of independents. Additionally, half of the voters who supported Biden in 2020 believe he should not be running this year and are less likely to vote for him in the upcoming election.
When including third-party candidates, Trump leads with 44 percent, followed by Biden at 40 percent, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 11 percent. The poll also highlighted concerns about age, with 69 percent of voters saying Biden’s age is a factor in their decision, compared to 48 percent for Trump.
This poll, one of the largest conducted following the presidential debate, reveals the importance of voter turnout in the election. If a significant number of Democrats or previous Biden voters abstain from voting in November, Trump could achieve a sweeping electoral college victory by winning the necessary battleground states to secure a second due to higher enthusiasm among his base.
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