Trump is given a 55.2 percent chance of winning through the electoral college, with Harris being given a 44.6 percent chance in the JL Partners/Daily Mail election model.
The model calculates its decision based on the latest polling data as well as decades of election results and indicators. The latest update showed that Kamala Harris has the best chance of winning the popular vote, with 50.8 percent of the vote currently and a projected 65 percent chance of finishing with more votes in the election.
Trump, however, is given a 55.2 percent chance of winning through the electoral college, with Harris being given a 44.6 percent chance. The model found a slim chance of a tie between the two candidates. Trump’s current standing is an increase of four points since Monday and nine points since the low he saw post-debate.
"Things are continuing to move against Harris," Callum Hunter, data scientist at J.L. Partners, said. "While September saw her gain ground as a result of the debate and changes in ballot access, things have started to settle back to where they were at the start of September."
"If current trends continue (although these have only been in place for a week or so) then we may see Trump take a more concrete lead in the race over the coming few weeks," he added. "September seems to have been Harris' high point and trends suggest that this high has come to an end."
The advantage was given to Trump after it was found in state-by-state numbers that Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, battleground states known as the "blue wall," are leaning towards Trump. The model found that Trump’s probability of winning Pennsylvania now stands at 58 percent, an eight-point increase from where he was immediately after the debate.
In the Keystone State, Trump was found to lead by around 27,000 voters. The state could ultimately decide the election. When the model was tweaked to give Pennsylvania to Trump, the GOP nominee wins the election 100 percent of the time.
In terms of electoral college votes, the model placed Trump at winning 287 of them, crossing the 270 threshold. Harris received 251. The key battleground state of Pennsylvania was found to be a tossup in Trump’s direction, while other battleground states like North Carolina and Georgia leaned Trump.
A separate NPR/Marist swing state poll has found that Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump leads in Georgia and Arizona, while the two candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. "Something is happening," Human Events Daily host Jack Posobiec wrote.
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