Voter turnout matters: Dems go after high-propensity voters while Trump courts those who rarely or never show up to the ballot box

As the finish line for the 2024 presidential election nears, Democrats have been receiving the support of high-propensity voters who cast ballots in midterms or primaries, while Trump has been courting the vote of low-propensity voters like young men and nonwhite voters.

According to the New York Times, their latest poll of swing states in conjunction with Siena College found that Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris led among voters who cast ballots in the 2022 midterms and the 2024 primaries. GOP candidate Donald Trump holds a 12-point lead among those who last voted during the 2020 presidential election and a 19-point lead among those adults with no voting record. Harris and Trump are tied among those who last voted in 2022.

The outlet noted that Democrats benefited during the Obama era from "mobilizing young, nonwhite and infrequent voters to the polls." These "familiar maxims have been turned upside down."

"In the extreme, the Times/Siena data suggests Mr. Trump could win the presidency, perhaps even fairly handily, if he could turn out all registered voters," the outlet stated, noting the example of Times/Siena polling never showing Harris or Biden leading in the state of Michigan among registered voters in the 2024 cycle. "If, on the other hand, Ms. Harris could replay the midterm electorate, when more casual voters stayed home, she could easily win over 300 electoral votes and carry the swing states by a comfortable margin."

While Harris receives more support overall among black voters, Trump nearly doubled his support from the group between those who voted in 2022 to those who didn’t vote then. Trump sees a similar bump in support among Hispanic, white voters with college degrees, and white voters with no college degrees between those who voted in 2022 and those who did not. 

Trump trails Harris by one point among those in swing states who say they are "almost certain" they will vote, and leads by four points among those who say they are "very likely." He also saw a one-point lead among those who say they are "somewhat likely."

The outlet noted that low-turnout voters can be unpredictable in their voting, as many are still undecided, and "if these voters break one way or another as they tune in to the race, it’s easy to imagine how either side wins comfortably."