Washington Public School enrollment plummets

Washington’s public schools lost about 9,000 students this year, the largest single-year decline since the pandemic. According to an analysis by the Seattle Times of new state data released last week, statewide enrollment is now 50,000 students below where it was in the 2019–20 school year, when schools were shuttered in response to COVID-19.

Because public school funding is tied to enrollment, some districts have already reduced spending, while others are looking at new programs or offerings to entice families back from private schools, homeschooling, and other alternatives. In October, Washington counted about 1.096 million students enrolled in prekindergarten through 12th grade, according to the Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI), down from 1.105 million the previous school year.

Several of Washington’s largest districts posted enrollment drops, including Kent, Seattle, Tacoma, and Vancouver. This month, the state is expected to match funding to actual enrollment rather than earlier estimates, and districts that overestimated their student counts could face short-term cash flow challenges. If enrollment continues to fall, the long-term consequences could include staffing reductions and school closures.

In 2024, the Seattle School District considered closing schools because of falling enrollment, leading to a massive budget crisis, but scrapped the idea after parent backlash, and, like many other districts, begged the legislature for a bailout instead. Though this year’s incoming kindergarten class is larger than the previous year’s class for the first time in five years, there are still fewer kindergartners coming in than 12th graders graduating.

Data from the Office of the Superintendent of Public Instruction show growth in private schools and homeschool programs. Statewide, 10,000 fewer first graders are enrolled in public schools now than a decade ago.

Public school enrollment across the US has been trending downward. The National Center for Education Statistics projects an overall 4 percent decline in enrollment between 2020 and 2030, including an estimated 8 percent decline in elementary and secondary enrollment during that span.