GOP voters split on Vance, Rubio for 2028 presidential nominee: UNH poll

As the 2026 midterms grows ever nearer, many Republicans are looking beyond what is slated to take place in 2028 with the presidential election. Brand new polling from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center shows a split between GOP voters in the key primary state. The survey shows Vance still leading the primary battle, but finds Rubio closing the gap relative to where he was previously.

The poll finds that the vice president enjoys 36 percent of the state's primary vote, with Rubio trailing ten points behind at 26 percent. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul garners 8 percent, as does former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. Six percent would choose Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 4 percent former Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, and 2 percent would choose Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy. Other candidates amassed less than 2 percent in the poll.

This stands in sharp contrast to the same poll that was taken in February, which revealed Vance commanding more than 50 percent of the state's Republican support compared to Rubio's 7 percent.

This shift comes as Rubio has taken increasingly forward-facing roles in the White House, partially around the Iran conflict as well as other foreign policy initiatives. Rubio has pushed for a more aggressive approach regarding Iran.

Vance, meanwhile, has emerged as another public face of the war while trying to negotiate the US–Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) meant to halt the conflict. However, the agreement has largely collapsed amid the resumption of bombing.

The split between the two Cabinet members was explained in detail by Michael Rubin, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
“At their core, they represent different strains… Before taking office last year, Vance frequently criticized foreign wars as a waste of lives and money,” Rubin explained. “Rubio made a name for himself as a ‘hawk’ in the Senate, where he pushed for a more confrontational stance toward Iran, Russia, and Cuba. Both men are seen as potential successors to Trump and are the product of powerful, competing constituencies within the Republican Party. On one side are ‘neoconservatives’ whose adherents are more likely to advocate for foreign intervention. On the other are Republican voters and policy professionals who argue that many recent foreign wars were costly and reckless.”

Vance has also received increased scrutiny from some members of conservative media, including Ben Shapiro. When discussing the vice president’s role in the MOU, Shapiro has referred to the deal as a disaster and has repeatedly couched it as “JD’s deal.”

In contrast, others in the GOP figueres supported the efforts from Vance with the MOU, including Senator Rand Paul. The lawmaker praised the deal as it was being proposed and said, “I’m in favor of trying to end the war and I think negotiations is the way it will end. I think it’s a good idea to get the Strait of Hormuz open as soon as possible. It appears to me the trade has been: We stop blockading them and they stop blockading us. So I think that’s a good idea.”

Trump, for his part, has declined to indicate which way his coveted endorsement would go. The President has however hinted that Vance and Rubio could possibly run on a ticket together going into 2028.

“I don’t know how you beat them if they’re together,” he said of the two in a June interview with Pod Force One.