Chairman of market and investment strategy for JPMorgan Asset & Wealth Management Michael Cembalest has predicted that 2024 could see incumbent President Joe Biden drop out of the 2024 presidential race.
The prediction was made in Cembalest’s 2024 "Pillow Talk" outlook. it is among 10 "surprises for 2024" predicted by the JP Morgan strategist.
"President Biden withdraws sometime between Super Tuesday and the November election, citing health reasons. Biden passes the torch to a replacement candidate named by the Democratic National Committee," the prediction reads.
Cembalest wrote, "Biden has a low approval rating for a President with ~10% job creation since his inauguration, although that figure is the by-product of his inauguration coinciding with the rollout of COVID vaccines and a reopening US economy."
Cembalest wrote that he usually doesn’t make these predictions, but did so in this year’s report "for one time only" in honor of Market Strategist Bryon Wein, who passed away in 2023 at the age of 90.
"I never read any of the articles that kept score on how well Byron’s predictions did since that’s not the point. They were an exercise in thinking against the grain about what might happen in an industry dominated by consensus," he wrote.
Other predictions included by Cembalest on the list of "surprises for 2024" are "the US dollar remains stable," "the driverless car backlash is coming," "Argentine dollarization will fail if implemented," and "Russian invasion of Ukraine drags on with no ceasefire in 2024."
RealClearPolling’s averages of recent surveys as of January 10 places Trump 1.2 points ahead of Biden.
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