Spanberger, Sears in statistical tie after VA debate, AG nom Jay Jones trails Miyares: Trafalgar poll

According to a poll from Trafalgar, 47.7 percent of likely Virginia voters support Democrat candidate Spanberger, and 45.1 percent of likely voters in Virginia support Earle-Sears. The margin of error in the poll is 2.9 percent, meaning the polls are a statistical tie.

The poll was conducted October 8 through October 10 in the days immediately following Thursday's debate with Spanberger and Earle-Sears. There were 1,066 likely voters that responded. In the poll, the race for Lieutenant Governor was also surveyed. 46.8 percent of those in the poll said they would support Ghazala Hasmi, and 45.9 percent of respondents said they would support John Reid.

The gap between Jones and Miyares, as well as the tightening of the other races, may be due in part to revelations that text from Jones called for the assassination of political opponent Todd Gilbert, and other reporting indicates he talked about the killing of Gilbert's children so that Gilbert would move on gun policy.

During the debate on Thursday, Spanberger was asked repeatedly by the moderators if she would pull her endorsement supporting Jones. Each time, she dodged the question, leading Earle-Sears to focus on that point several times.

Jones, in a 2022 text chain, was speaking to GOP House Delegate Carrie Coyner when he made the remark about former Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert, "Three people, two bullets. Gilbert, hitler and pol pot. Gilbert gets two bullets to the head. Spoiler: put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know and he receives both bullets every time."

Coyner also recounted a conversation with Jones where the AG nominee said, “Well, maybe if a few [police officers] died, that they would move on, not shooting people, not killing people,” where he was arguing against qualified immunity for police.