Trump leads Biden by 1.7% in latest RCP average of national polls

The RealClearPolling average spans polls that were released between February 21 and March 13, and in the 19 polls included in that timeframe, Trump won over Biden in 13 of them, while one poll ended up in a tie.

Trump won by as much as 8 points, as seen in a Rasmussen Reports poll that was conducted between March 5 and 7, with Biden leading by as much as two points as seen in Reuters/Iposos and Emerson polls.

The average continues Trump’s lead over Biden in the averages of polling, with the average beginning to lean in Trump’s favor in September 2023. The average of polling fell to a tie between the two candidates over a two-day span in October 2023, but has since grown in Trump’s favor.

As RealClearPolling notes, on March 18 in the 2020 election cycle, Biden was up by 6.4 points.

In a three-way race between Trump, Biden, and independent candidate Robert F Kennedy, Jr, Trump came out on top in the average of polling, leading by 4.3 percent.

With candidates Cornell West and Jill Stein added in for a five-way race, Trump still came out on top of the polling average with 2.7 percent support.

RealClearPolitics polling averages also show that Biden’s job approval continues to be low, with 40.2 percent of Americans approving and 55.5 percent disapproving. His job approval fell below 50 percent in August of 2021 amid the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, and has never recovered.

The polling comes as the election has pivoted away from the primaries and to the general election, with both Trump and Biden being named their parties' presumptive nominees earlier in March. Election Day is eight months away.