Trump leads Kamala in swing states after she replaces Biden as presumptive Dem nom: Emerson poll

According to the poll, Trump leads Harris 49 to 44 percent in Arizona, 48 to 46 percent in Georgia, 46 to 45 percent in Michigan, and 48 to 46 percent in Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, Trump and the presumptive Democrat nominee are tied at 47 points. The poll was conducted between July 22-23, the two days following Biden dropping out of the race.

The sample size for three out of the five swing states was 800 voters, with the exceptions of Pennsylvania, which had 850 voters surveyed, and Wisconsin with 845 in the poll. The margin of error in the poll was +/- 3.4 percent for the three with 800 voters and +/- 3.3 percent for the latter two.

Among the top issues in each state were the economy as well as immigration, both issues Trump has polled better on in comparison to Joe Biden. Executive Director of Emerson College Polling Spencer Kimball said of the poll that Harris saw a slight bump from where Biden was at, having support similar to what Biden had during polls in March in comparison to Trump. Biden had been bleeding support from young voters over the Israel-Hamas War and other factors, however, some of them appear to be shifting back to supporting Harris in a head-to-head with Trump.

“Young voters have shifted toward Harris: her support compared to Biden increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling this month," Kimball added. According to the Real Clear Polling average, Trump leads Harris nationally by just under two points across the country.