RCP average shows Trump leading Biden by 1.1 point, DeSantis trailing by 2.5 in hypothetical head to head match ups

The average of polls shows Trump at 45.5 percent support and Biden at 44.4.

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Hannah Nightingale Washington DC
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The latest RealClearPolitics averages of polls reveals that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is trailing President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 head-to-head matchup by 2.5 points, while GOP frontrunner Donald Trump is ahead of Biden by 1.1 points in a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 election.

The RealClearPolitics average of polls for a DeSantis v Biden matchup looked at polling conducted between August 25 and October 1. Biden is at an average of 45.6 points, compared to DeSantis’ 43.1.

One CNN poll conducted between August 25 and 31 of 1259 registered voters had the two candidates tying at 47 percent, while another poll from Harvard-Harris, conducted between September 12 and 14 had Biden ahead by 4 points, with DeSantis pulling in 38 percent support and Biden at 42.

The average of polls for a Trump v Biden 2024 rematch looks at polling conducted between September 14 and October 3, with Trump at 45.5 percent support and Biden at 44.4.

Multiple polls had the two candidates at a tie, including a Morning Consult, NBC News, and Emerson poll, while just two polls had Biden polling ahead of Trump.

One ABC News/Washington Post poll had Trump ahead by a full 10 points, with Biden at 42 percent support and Trump at 52. The poll was conducted between September 15 and 20 of 890 registered voters.

Three other polls had Trump ahead by 3 points, including a New York Post poll and The Messenger/Harris X poll.

This comes as Trump’s lead ahead of other Republican primary candidates has continued to pull ahead, with averages of polls placing Trump at 45.5 percent ahead of his next-highest polling competitor, DeSantis.

The RealClearPolitics average places Trump at 57.9 percent support, while DeSantis is at 12.5 percent. At his peak in January and February, DeSantis was polling above 30 percent, but the Florida leader has seen a slow slide since the winter.

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