Republicans in the lead on party ID for first time in third quarter of presidential election year: Gallup poll

With under 40 days until Election Day, where GOP nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris will face off, Republicans are in the lead for the first time in the third quarter of an election year for voters who say they identify as or lean toward the Republican party.

Of US Adults, 48 percent said they identified as or leaned toward the Republican Party, while 45 percent said the same of the Democratic Party. The figures are based on Gallup polling averages taken during the third quarter, July to September.

Gallup noted that "party affiliation and voting are strongly predictive of individuals’ vote choices, with the vast majority of identifiers and leaners voting for the candidate of their preferred party," and that there are typically more Democratic voters than Republican ones in the US adult population.

When the party had a larger number of voters affiliated with the Democrats, the presidential candidate of the party won, including in 1992, 1996, 2012, and 2020. In years where there was a narrower difference in affiliated voters, Republicans won, including 2000, 2004, and 2016.

The polling company noted that Republicans have "not had an outright advantage in party affiliation during the third quarter of a presidential election year," and have rarely outnumbered Democrats in the past three decades.

Overall, Gallup said that "nearly all" measures by the company "have shown some relationship to past presidential election outcomes or that speak to current perceptions of the two major parties favor the Republican Party over the Democratic Party."

The Republican Party led 50-44 percent over the Democratic Party when Americans were asked which political party would do a better job of keeping the country prosperous.

Americans also said that the Republican Party is better able to address what they think is the most important problem facing the country than the Democratic Party. The top issues named by Americans are the economy, immigration, the government, and inflation.

Gallup noted that party identification and the question of which party is better able to handle the most important problem are the strongest indicators to which party will win the election based on past presidential outcomes.