Elise Stefanik makes gains in polls against Governor Kathy Hochul

Although New York Governor Kathy Hochul leads in polls when matched up against other candidates, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) the GOP favorite in the race, is closing the gap between her and the incumbent governor, according to a new Sienna Research Institute poll.

53 percent of New Yorkers in the poll said that if faced with Hochul on the upcoming 2026 gubernatorial race ticket, they would want someone else to win. In a hypothetical head-to-head match-up between Stefanik and Hochul, Stefanik trailed the governor by 14 points, at 45 to 31 percent. In June, that lead was 23 points. Around half of voters from the poll said they were familiar with Stefanik.

“While the Governor can trumpet her best job approval rating since March 2023, there is little doubt that Stefanik will highlight that more than a year out from a potential match-up, Hochul’s lead over Stefanik is only 14 points, 45-31%, down from 23 points in June, and that Hochul doesn’t hit ‘the magic 51% mark,’” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “More than two-thirds of Democrats are with Hochul and three-quarters of Republicans are with Stefanik. Independents are closely divided, leaning toward Stefanik, after favoring Hochul in June."

“New York City voters remain solidly behind Hochul, however downstate suburban voters went from favoring Hochul by 11 points in June to narrowly favoring Stefanik now, and upstate voters had given Hochul a 12-point lead, and are now virtually evenly divided," Greenberg added.

Alex DeGrasse, the Executive Director of Elise for Congress, told The Post Millennial, "The latest Siena poll is catastrophic for Kathy Hochul as she is losing independent voters to Elise Stefanik, is below 50% on the ballot, and only 35% of voters want to re-elect Kathy Hochul as voters are increasingly looking to Elise Stefanik to deliver new leadership."

Stefanik has been teasing a run for the New York gubernatorial race for some time, and has seemingly consolidated the GOP field if she officially announces to join the race in November this year. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) announced last month that he would not seek the governor's seat.
 
Hochul, despite Stefanik gaining ground on the incumbent, brushed off the poll. “[It’s] my 16th election. I’ve been through countless polls. And guess what, team? There’s going to be a lot more between now and next November,” she told reporters.

Stefanik's War Room page posted in light of the poll, "It's simple: the Worst Governor in America's poll numbers are dropping like a rock. Kathy Hochul's out-of-control spending and bloated budgets resulted in a $34 BILLION budget gap. Fed-up families resoundingly reject her failed policies. Now Hochul is panicking and desperate."

DeGrasse added in his comments to TPM, "Chairwoman Elise Stefanik will continue to focus on providing results such as delivering the largest middle class tax cut in New York history. She will repeal Kathy Hochul’s failed bail reform and dangerous sanctuary cities policies and cut taxes for New Yorkers."