Speaker Johnson downplays polls showing Dem takeover of House, says results are based on ‘faulty analysis’

House Speaker Mike Johnson dismissed polling projections that predict Republican losses in November’s midterm elections, arguing that the surveys were based on flawed analysis.

Speaking with Fox News anchor Shannon Bream on Sunday, Johnson addressed the network’s House power rankings, which project that Democrats are favored to retake control of the House as the two parties enter the final stretch of the campaign. Fox News’ forecast listed 219 seats as solid Democratic, compared with 198 solid Republican, and 18 races classified as toss-ups. Democrats need 218 seats to secure a majority.

The network’s projections suggest that a more favorable election night for Democrats could yield 237 seats. However, a favorable scenario for Republicans would still result in Democrats maintaining a narrow majority with 219 seats.

Bream asked Johnson why he believes forecasts predicting Democratic voters are wrong, to which Johnson said it was because they are based on “faulty analysis.” He noted that some polling firms have produced unreliable results and said two polling organizations have been exposed for reporting “completely fraudulent numbers.”

He also attributed the forecasts to a lack of Republican engagement in polling. Citing CNN, Johnson said 14 out of the last 16 October polls have undersampled elections by an average of 4 points.

“Republicans are no longer responding to polls,” Johnson argued. He also noted that when speaking to Republicans in swing states, he has found few who have participated in polls.

"I'm telling you, these polls are off—all of them—because they're using faulty analysis,” Johnson said.

Johnson’s remarks come amid a controversy involving Wedgewood Polling, whose data were cited by several major media outlets before it admitted that all but one of its surveys had been fabricated.

The organization said it was an experiment to demonstrate vulnerabilities of the polling industry. Its results had been cited by The New York Times, MS Now, Newsweek, Decision Desk HQ, and others.

"We wanted to test a simple hypothesis: How easy is it for an entirely fabricated polling firm to gain traction, be taken seriously, and expose how little scrutinization exists in media and public commentary?" Wedgewood Polling said on X. "The short answer: Far too easy."

"The ease with which unverified figures were absorbed into mainstream political narratives highlights a systemic breakdown in media vetting and data aggregation," Wedgewood added in a statement.

According to the Real Clear Politics polling average for the 2026 generic congressional vote, Democrats lead Republicans 51.1 percent to 42.8 percent as of Sunday.