Stefanik narrows Hochul's lead among independents from 18 to 4 points: Siena poll

GOP candidate for New York Governor Elise Stefanik has made gains with independent voters in the last month in a match-up against incumbent Democrat New York Governor Kathy Hochul, according to a new poll from Siena. Stefanik announced her run for governor after November's elections.

Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said of the polling, “In the race against Stefanik, Hochul continues to run very strongly with Democrats, 78-9%, however, Stefanik has now widened her lead among Republicans, 79-11%, up from 68-15% in September, and significantly narrowed the gap among independents, with whom Hochul now leads 40-36%, down from 43-25% in September."

Overall, the poll concluded that Hochul has a 52 to 32 percent lead in a general election match-up over Stefanik, which would be considered a strong lead in the state of New York. However, multiple recent polls have shown Stefanik being in striking distance of Hochul, something that her chief strategist, Alex DeGrasse, addressed in a statement to The Post Millennial.

DeGrasse said it's another "false and biased poll that the Far Left media laps up while ignoring multiple independent polls showing this race within the margin of error once you properly account for likely voters and proper geographical representation based on historical turnout. Kathy Hochul is the worst and the weakest governor in the country, and no fake poll from a liberal college will change that," DeGrasse said.

One poll from the Manhattan Institute found that Stefanik has a 1 percent lead over Hochul. A poll from Siena in May also showed the two were in a dead heat, with Hochul leading Stefanik by only one point. The poll from Siena also uses registered voters for the sample instead of likely voters.

In a statement to TPM, Stefanik's team said that the "weighted party registration in the poll is about 49% Democrat, 22% Republican, and 28% independent or other. In the 2022 Governor's race, turnout by party registration was about 48% Democrat, 29% Republican, and 23% unaffiliated. That means Republicans are under-represented and independents are over-represented."

Additionally, "According to the release, the weighted party registration in the poll is about 49% Democrat, 22% Republican, and 28% independent or other. In the 2022 Governor's race, turnout by party registration was about 48% Democrat, 29% Republican, and 23% unaffiliated. That means Republicans are under-represented, and independents are over-represented compared with a real midterm electorate," Stefanik's team said.

The poll, although it showed Hochul having a strong lead over Stefanik, showed that 48 percent of New Yorkers prefer to have "someone else" be governor instead of Hochul, with only 42 percent wanting her to be reelected.